Wow Sonali! Incisive and lays out the focus and priority very well. With all due respect, may I point out a few things?
What seems to be missing is the leverage that India internally can, in terms of resources, policy changes and planning...if everything is focused on winning the next election, and dictated by that, India is headed towards disaster economically and on the global stage as well.
With all respect, disagree on one area. We cannot consort with the US and EU for arms and strategic alliances and hobnob with China for trade. In the cold hard world of strategic geopolitics, as you rightly said, if you are not with us, you are against us.
China's way of control is primarily economic through loans and gifts of military hardware to create a dependence in exchange for natural resources or territory which give it an advantage militarily. We have to evaluate our relation with China on that basis.
As China looks Eastward, it will seek to curtail India's global reach and leverage by ensuring it is mired and bogged down in local, regional issues, which it has executed successfully as a strategy so far. Look at our relations with SriLanka, Nepal, Maldives, Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan...every country surrounding us, with the exception of Bhutan.
Also strategy. This, the mandarins and the jingoistic chest thumping idiots who populate the GOI today, with a focus on winning the next elections, do not have a clue about.
Our 'defense' against China in Galwan is costing us over 100 Lakh crores annually by a conservative estimate (We spend around 6000 crores annually to keep our hold on Siachen, by the way) This is apart from opportunistic purchase of arms ( we spent 4 times more than Egypt in buying each Rafale). Whatever the cost to China, it can afford it, given the cost of its economy. We can't. Which is the only reason that talks will keep dragging on as I predicted a long time back, because the economic cost to us to maintain our troops is using up a lot of scarce resources that this country has....Not to mention pandering to one's ego and megalomania and draining the country of its resources through areas like demonetisation, a poorly conceived and pathetically implemented GST and also by exclusive planes, the Central Vista et all....
Great Analysis! Indian policy is too politicized to execute this clearly, sadly.
Was thrown off by the statement -"China is 18% of the global GDP, the US is 16% of the GDP," as US is still #1 in GDP. I noticed you used PPP instead of Nominal GDP (which is normally used) for country level GDP comparison. Any particular reason for this?
Wishful thinking. That's why most countries see through our intentions and put us on the mat at the first available opportunity. Being shamelessly opportunist is OK until your plans suit others. Being such as cruel psychopath plotting against our own neighbours will continue to make us globally irrelevant and be treated like a pariah. The analogy of importing Western weapons the most corrupt military industrial complex in the world is akin to not just a man attempting to lift himself up by standing in a bucket but drowning in it. My advise to you is to stick to stock market speculation and trade strategies and seek shelter under a western citizenship of convenience until you grow balls big enough to come back to your homeland and live in it before advising your country of how to conduct its affairs. You are and will remain an embarassment for us till then
USA wants to restrict china influence in ASEAN and Central asia as per one American expert. Also i heard US rejected FTA with india. What pakistan (using terrorism etc., under nuclear umbrella)is doing is a mini version of what US did in Europe & Arab world during coldwar.(model) i.e., influencing elites in a country-afghanistan.we are already aligning with west then why would they help our textiles industry ?
This article aplty reminds me the famous quote of queen, Marie -Antoinette, "Let them eat cake”.
The problem with the Indian thinkers is that they want to "Run with the hare & hunt with the hounds". Instead of guiding their incompetent present government for a considerable social and economic reforms , their compulsive behavior towards pakistan is still intact. People in India are without jobs and unemployment is all time high and the misery is that this ultra-fanatical lady is advising her government how to create trouble for a neighboring country. Instead of focusing on the current severe economic crisis, they are still adamant to go for miles ahead to teach pakistan a lesson . This is just a compulsive mental disorder which cannot be cured and its symptoms are hatred & jingoism.
Left halfway because the author clearly does not understand the fundamentals of economics. The point that India should join RCEP is laughable at best. In the absence of assurance of inclusion of services, India has nothing to sell to the RCEP countries. And the FTA would mean that India becomes the next dumping ground for cheap Chinese goods. You cannot compete against a country with excess capacity (their marginal cost of production is near zero). Letting the rupee devalue is another stupid idea. It will make petroleum products expensive => drive internal inflation => make the domestic mfg industry even less competitive. What we need are solid protectionist measures and low bureaucracy.
A good essay, but in last three paragraphs you have written like an ultranationalist.
How do you think that India with the help of US can intervene and liberate Baluchistan and KP?
This thinking is far behind reality.
1) Firstly their isn't as such insurgencies,which you think can do it.
Baluchistan is just like rest of Pak, the security issues which are evolving in Baluchistan are nearer to Afghan border. Pakistan firstly secured itself from internal warlords, for external and infiltrations, Taliban are and will be helpful for Pakistan to stop insurgents from entering into border areas.Also fencing is about to be completed, this will curb the infiltration and border will no more be prone to insurgencies from Afg.
2) secondly, What do you think is it possible for India to intervene in Baluchistan and KP ,without facing resistance from Khalistan movement, Nagaland etc ?
India is and will not use international forum for it, because it is like accepting these movements (khalistan,nagaland etc) as per its own stance. So if Baloch has right of self determination than Indian independent movements also has right of self determination.keep in mind there are one dozen plus such insurgencies in India.
....*So forget these mythical interventions either directly or with some alliance, the war is a myth because both have Nuclear credible deterrence and as per history and psychological mindset both can use nuclear power if they will ever feel loss of some part of territory*...
After CPEC the importance of Pakistan for China is just like Shanghai.Owing to increase in threats in South China sea, CPEC is the safest way for china and china will never loose this opportunity.
Russia has also interest in it because of Long and freeze route she is following.
As per you it will take china some years to compete with US in naval force, but you forget that it will take India some decades to compete with China.
...* Your views about strong relationship with US,EU and RUSSIA is like a utopia , because US and RUSSIA is just like left and right now, you have to make choice between left or right, and in my opine it will be difficult for India to balance between both*
Poverty in India is at its peak. India has to focus on its poverty, unemployment and economy to compete with world powers.For this India basically need five things 1).Energy resources 2).Alliance support 3).FDI 4).Shortest access to markets (especially EU) and efficient trade 5).Internal development.
.........For energy demand India has 2 options of gas pipeline either from Iran or from CAR'S (TAPI) and in both cases she need Pak, because of its location.
.........For alliance support she needs US and EU but as per current stats, it will cause problem of "Balance of Payment", because west consider India a big market and it will help west in raising their economy and causes Current account deficit in India. QUAD paved a way for China,Russia,Pak etc alliance. West can support you in armaments but will watch rest of booldshed from 100s of miles away.
..... FDI(foreign direct investment) is of keen importance for Indian economy development. India need alliance for this. China can help much more than west because of being its neighbor.
....for shortest access to Markets and efficient trade, India will need BRI routes in future. trade with regional countries will benefit India more because in region her only main competitor is China. It's easy to curtail one competitor.
...For internal development, especially real estate , India needed internal + external cooperation and in this regard China will be much helpful for her because of currency swap.It will not causes much burden.
For all of these India has to think realistically and rationally rather than emotionally.
India has to cooperate with neighbors and regional powers to promote peace and trade. If west ever find that India is no more useful,they will treat it like a paper in dustbin and then India has to lean towards regional countries and organization especially SCO,ECO,SAARC.
In one wide sweep, Ms Ranade directs her intellectual searchlight on the global landscape and everything that it contains: political as well as economic compulsions & choices of all the major players. The aim is to chart out the best course that India needs to follow if it has to bring the much-needed employment and economic growth to all those who have hitherto been left stranded by our wrong policies.
While your write up seems quite alright but the pragmatism to building a profound relation with a neighbour is still lacking.
If the GOI was to follow your plan and plot ill-will to the neighbours all along, that very policy will eat India alive. It will decay itself.
To be a global power India needs a harmonious working relationship with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal and along with them Iran and Russia. Your analogy while the rest of it might work but will fail spectacularly if all along India was two timing Pakistan and China.
Wow Sonali! Incisive and lays out the focus and priority very well. With all due respect, may I point out a few things?
What seems to be missing is the leverage that India internally can, in terms of resources, policy changes and planning...if everything is focused on winning the next election, and dictated by that, India is headed towards disaster economically and on the global stage as well.
With all respect, disagree on one area. We cannot consort with the US and EU for arms and strategic alliances and hobnob with China for trade. In the cold hard world of strategic geopolitics, as you rightly said, if you are not with us, you are against us.
China's way of control is primarily economic through loans and gifts of military hardware to create a dependence in exchange for natural resources or territory which give it an advantage militarily. We have to evaluate our relation with China on that basis.
As China looks Eastward, it will seek to curtail India's global reach and leverage by ensuring it is mired and bogged down in local, regional issues, which it has executed successfully as a strategy so far. Look at our relations with SriLanka, Nepal, Maldives, Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan...every country surrounding us, with the exception of Bhutan.
Also strategy. This, the mandarins and the jingoistic chest thumping idiots who populate the GOI today, with a focus on winning the next elections, do not have a clue about.
Our 'defense' against China in Galwan is costing us over 100 Lakh crores annually by a conservative estimate (We spend around 6000 crores annually to keep our hold on Siachen, by the way) This is apart from opportunistic purchase of arms ( we spent 4 times more than Egypt in buying each Rafale). Whatever the cost to China, it can afford it, given the cost of its economy. We can't. Which is the only reason that talks will keep dragging on as I predicted a long time back, because the economic cost to us to maintain our troops is using up a lot of scarce resources that this country has....Not to mention pandering to one's ego and megalomania and draining the country of its resources through areas like demonetisation, a poorly conceived and pathetically implemented GST and also by exclusive planes, the Central Vista et all....
Great Analysis! Indian policy is too politicized to execute this clearly, sadly.
Was thrown off by the statement -"China is 18% of the global GDP, the US is 16% of the GDP," as US is still #1 in GDP. I noticed you used PPP instead of Nominal GDP (which is normally used) for country level GDP comparison. Any particular reason for this?
Wishful thinking. That's why most countries see through our intentions and put us on the mat at the first available opportunity. Being shamelessly opportunist is OK until your plans suit others. Being such as cruel psychopath plotting against our own neighbours will continue to make us globally irrelevant and be treated like a pariah. The analogy of importing Western weapons the most corrupt military industrial complex in the world is akin to not just a man attempting to lift himself up by standing in a bucket but drowning in it. My advise to you is to stick to stock market speculation and trade strategies and seek shelter under a western citizenship of convenience until you grow balls big enough to come back to your homeland and live in it before advising your country of how to conduct its affairs. You are and will remain an embarassment for us till then
Wonderful article, we need peace with neighbours and inside the country
USA wants to restrict china influence in ASEAN and Central asia as per one American expert. Also i heard US rejected FTA with india. What pakistan (using terrorism etc., under nuclear umbrella)is doing is a mini version of what US did in Europe & Arab world during coldwar.(model) i.e., influencing elites in a country-afghanistan.we are already aligning with west then why would they help our textiles industry ?
This article aplty reminds me the famous quote of queen, Marie -Antoinette, "Let them eat cake”.
The problem with the Indian thinkers is that they want to "Run with the hare & hunt with the hounds". Instead of guiding their incompetent present government for a considerable social and economic reforms , their compulsive behavior towards pakistan is still intact. People in India are without jobs and unemployment is all time high and the misery is that this ultra-fanatical lady is advising her government how to create trouble for a neighboring country. Instead of focusing on the current severe economic crisis, they are still adamant to go for miles ahead to teach pakistan a lesson . This is just a compulsive mental disorder which cannot be cured and its symptoms are hatred & jingoism.
Left halfway because the author clearly does not understand the fundamentals of economics. The point that India should join RCEP is laughable at best. In the absence of assurance of inclusion of services, India has nothing to sell to the RCEP countries. And the FTA would mean that India becomes the next dumping ground for cheap Chinese goods. You cannot compete against a country with excess capacity (their marginal cost of production is near zero). Letting the rupee devalue is another stupid idea. It will make petroleum products expensive => drive internal inflation => make the domestic mfg industry even less competitive. What we need are solid protectionist measures and low bureaucracy.
A good essay, but in last three paragraphs you have written like an ultranationalist.
How do you think that India with the help of US can intervene and liberate Baluchistan and KP?
This thinking is far behind reality.
1) Firstly their isn't as such insurgencies,which you think can do it.
Baluchistan is just like rest of Pak, the security issues which are evolving in Baluchistan are nearer to Afghan border. Pakistan firstly secured itself from internal warlords, for external and infiltrations, Taliban are and will be helpful for Pakistan to stop insurgents from entering into border areas.Also fencing is about to be completed, this will curb the infiltration and border will no more be prone to insurgencies from Afg.
2) secondly, What do you think is it possible for India to intervene in Baluchistan and KP ,without facing resistance from Khalistan movement, Nagaland etc ?
India is and will not use international forum for it, because it is like accepting these movements (khalistan,nagaland etc) as per its own stance. So if Baloch has right of self determination than Indian independent movements also has right of self determination.keep in mind there are one dozen plus such insurgencies in India.
....*So forget these mythical interventions either directly or with some alliance, the war is a myth because both have Nuclear credible deterrence and as per history and psychological mindset both can use nuclear power if they will ever feel loss of some part of territory*...
After CPEC the importance of Pakistan for China is just like Shanghai.Owing to increase in threats in South China sea, CPEC is the safest way for china and china will never loose this opportunity.
Russia has also interest in it because of Long and freeze route she is following.
As per you it will take china some years to compete with US in naval force, but you forget that it will take India some decades to compete with China.
...* Your views about strong relationship with US,EU and RUSSIA is like a utopia , because US and RUSSIA is just like left and right now, you have to make choice between left or right, and in my opine it will be difficult for India to balance between both*
Poverty in India is at its peak. India has to focus on its poverty, unemployment and economy to compete with world powers.For this India basically need five things 1).Energy resources 2).Alliance support 3).FDI 4).Shortest access to markets (especially EU) and efficient trade 5).Internal development.
.........For energy demand India has 2 options of gas pipeline either from Iran or from CAR'S (TAPI) and in both cases she need Pak, because of its location.
.........For alliance support she needs US and EU but as per current stats, it will cause problem of "Balance of Payment", because west consider India a big market and it will help west in raising their economy and causes Current account deficit in India. QUAD paved a way for China,Russia,Pak etc alliance. West can support you in armaments but will watch rest of booldshed from 100s of miles away.
..... FDI(foreign direct investment) is of keen importance for Indian economy development. India need alliance for this. China can help much more than west because of being its neighbor.
....for shortest access to Markets and efficient trade, India will need BRI routes in future. trade with regional countries will benefit India more because in region her only main competitor is China. It's easy to curtail one competitor.
...For internal development, especially real estate , India needed internal + external cooperation and in this regard China will be much helpful for her because of currency swap.It will not causes much burden.
For all of these India has to think realistically and rationally rather than emotionally.
India has to cooperate with neighbors and regional powers to promote peace and trade. If west ever find that India is no more useful,they will treat it like a paper in dustbin and then India has to lean towards regional countries and organization especially SCO,ECO,SAARC.
In one wide sweep, Ms Ranade directs her intellectual searchlight on the global landscape and everything that it contains: political as well as economic compulsions & choices of all the major players. The aim is to chart out the best course that India needs to follow if it has to bring the much-needed employment and economic growth to all those who have hitherto been left stranded by our wrong policies.
While your write up seems quite alright but the pragmatism to building a profound relation with a neighbour is still lacking.
If the GOI was to follow your plan and plot ill-will to the neighbours all along, that very policy will eat India alive. It will decay itself.
To be a global power India needs a harmonious working relationship with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal and along with them Iran and Russia. Your analogy while the rest of it might work but will fail spectacularly if all along India was two timing Pakistan and China.
Yes...and the way to go about it is by not abusing neighbours and calling them termites, specially when their GDP and exports is much more than our.
Excellent Analysis. Strategy without strong Economic Foundation is a pipe dream
Something that you have been hammering all along. But will they ever listen? They and their courtiers are too happy with the Goldilocks stock market.
Very well constructed pov with incisive understanding of position of India in international politics.