The WPI Index was 122.2 in February, 2020, just before the abrupt shutdown ordered by Modi in March 2020. During the 3 month shutdown, it dipped briefly to a low of 117.5 in May, 2020. But by August 2020, the index had recovered to 122 again. Sarkari economists have been explaining away the sharp rise in WPI in terms of a mythical “base effect.” That is simply not true, especially since January, 2021, when the index stood at 126.5.
High inflation along with staggeringly high unemployment is distressing. It is time for all political parties to address this. Government is not only tone deaf but tone dumb.
We are populated by economists and policy makers who have no stake in the consequences of their recommendations. They are good, in fact, very good at explaining without any understanding.
to play the devil's optimistic advocate: a high WPI may be an early indicator of manufacturing re-jigging and/or service sector data centers ventures, etc. would not be surprised if China is driving up prices of bulk goods that Indian growth needs (like CPUs).
CPI may or may not see much impact if this is the case.
if, instead, the high WPI inflation is indeed the new norm going forward, then its only a matter of time before CPI hits the ceiling. if this is where things are headed, my guess is (given everyone's luck these days) it will be just in time for elections.
it might transpire that, come election time, consumers are incensed by food prices, and industry is incensed by construction material prices. naturally, the farming-friendly political parties are more likely to be perceived as having the skills needed to reduce food prices at the middleman level.
The govt has been quite apparently and unashamedly hiding the truth in the benchmark numbers across the board for a while now. We should not forget the resignation of NSSO independent members including its chairman two years back to protest against this manipulation.
Fudging of numbers can help only temporarily in stage managing a false narrative but sooner, rather than later, the truth will catch up to give a tight slap.
Everyone's living n struggling in inflation far exceeding the 6% figure. By denying that truth, the govt is only worsening the situation and prolonging the pain!
The problem of unremunerative prices to farmers is actually a problem of demand and supply. If you can fix that with tech, I am sure we could have a solution.
Example,
1.if the government has website/app on which government puts in the estimated demand by each cereal/grain by pincode
2. The farmers log in and take the empty slots available
3. If all slots are full the farmers are alerted NOT to produce their choice and are instead suggested an alternative cereal/ grain to grow
I think a simple solution like this managed by the government can solve this problem.
High inflation along with staggeringly high unemployment is distressing. It is time for all political parties to address this. Government is not only tone deaf but tone dumb.
Brilliant and honest essay as usual.
We are populated by economists and policy makers who have no stake in the consequences of their recommendations. They are good, in fact, very good at explaining without any understanding.
to play the devil's optimistic advocate: a high WPI may be an early indicator of manufacturing re-jigging and/or service sector data centers ventures, etc. would not be surprised if China is driving up prices of bulk goods that Indian growth needs (like CPUs).
CPI may or may not see much impact if this is the case.
if, instead, the high WPI inflation is indeed the new norm going forward, then its only a matter of time before CPI hits the ceiling. if this is where things are headed, my guess is (given everyone's luck these days) it will be just in time for elections.
it might transpire that, come election time, consumers are incensed by food prices, and industry is incensed by construction material prices. naturally, the farming-friendly political parties are more likely to be perceived as having the skills needed to reduce food prices at the middleman level.
Sooner or later, the INR will give way against the USD. That is when the real crunch will come
The govt has been quite apparently and unashamedly hiding the truth in the benchmark numbers across the board for a while now. We should not forget the resignation of NSSO independent members including its chairman two years back to protest against this manipulation.
Fudging of numbers can help only temporarily in stage managing a false narrative but sooner, rather than later, the truth will catch up to give a tight slap.
Everyone's living n struggling in inflation far exceeding the 6% figure. By denying that truth, the govt is only worsening the situation and prolonging the pain!
Why no tweet I can see of urs !!!!
Wish u very happy Christmas
The problem of unremunerative prices to farmers is actually a problem of demand and supply. If you can fix that with tech, I am sure we could have a solution.
Example,
1.if the government has website/app on which government puts in the estimated demand by each cereal/grain by pincode
2. The farmers log in and take the empty slots available
3. If all slots are full the farmers are alerted NOT to produce their choice and are instead suggested an alternative cereal/ grain to grow
I think a simple solution like this managed by the government can solve this problem.
Happy Christmas, Ma'am! 🙏
Summary of India’s economics and politics in 2021 and its future. Requesting essay in this regard. And please activate your twitter account.
Thanks and regards. 🙏🙏
You hit the nail on the Index...the Govt. math is flawed to a fault...well done Ma'aM.